We’re here in week 5 of the NFL and all of a sudden there are different options presenting ourselves. We have more data that correlate more statistical outcomes, there are styles of play and schemes expectations; along with the unfortunate but inevitably of injuries in a very, very physical, contact sport.
I think I’ve been looking at the journey all wrong. I’ve been looking at it from an obvious / must win bet that might bring entertainment or a sweat on redzone. Taking the moneyline value of just a team winning and combining them into a parlay offers the best chance of it being successful. We have had some amazing drama with the last minute world record field goal making our bet successful and the heart stopping error of a fumble in the Vikings first game. My first incarnation of the journey was to cover the 1st wave of games. (Even though the better quality viewing is often cherry picked for the latter game) This will be adjusted as I want the journey to be entertaining but also not forced in choosing 4 games from a 8 game slate. (Higher risk of uncertainty)
The Journey will now be spread over the weekend. This week we have the London game and a great place to start. (We have 4 sessions of NFL and why not pick one from each?) Betting edges are constantly attempted to be minimized by the bookies as lines are moving within the week aggressively. This happened quite dramatically this week as the opening total line for the London game was set at a low 40.5. This was obviously bet on as the line moved +5 points to 45.5 by time Monday morning came round. Some bookies went to 46+ but it has settled at 45 as of time of writing. So what can we make of this?
Jets +3 @ Falcons -3 (via London) O/U 45
The Jets and Wilson were unsurprisingly able to move the ball effectively as the Titans pass rush was none existent last week. If you don't bring pressure to the QB, he will have time to pick his spots. This is what Wilson did. I’m not saying Wilson is a world beater at the moment, what I’m insinuating is that not faced with Bill Belichick defence, the Broncos top 3 defence and Panthers furious front 7 he should be notablibly better. The Falcons are in town and are on par with the Titans on bringing pressure. They have the worst defence in regards to points conceded and look all out of sorts in the secondary. I think the Jets will score points. We discussed that we like the Jets on the handicap on Iggy's podcast and we like Cory Davies to shine (Over 54.5 yards). The Falcons have had a big blow mid week as Ridley, their main star is out. This will put more pressure on Kyle Pitts and Cordelle Patterson. Matt Ryan played better last week as he also came across a better match up defense. This week it's the Jets defence who have been more productive especially in fantasy production under Salah. 1 player in Top 5 for LB, DL, DB last week. They also played an obscene amount of snaps and on a short mega travel spot. They could be fatigued. I also think that the Falcons will put up some points. Give me the Over 39.5 total points. Let's get the weekend off to a flyer and cheer on what could be said to be one of the worst 2 teams the NFL could have chosen this weekend to go to London.
Lions +9.5 @ Vikings -9.5 O/U 47
The Lions have been spirited, plucky, hard working and been close in all games that they have been involved in. I think that might change this weekend as they travel to the Vikings on the second leg of back to back road games. The Lions have lost their All Pro centre and left tackle this week as Danielle Hunter starts licking his lips in anticipation. The much forgotten Vikings defence might have a field day. Goff is not likely to throw the ball down field (Swift over receptions and yards was given out on Iggy’s podcast) but it's the Lions defence I want to focus on or more importantly Kirk Cousins. This Lions unit has surrendered over 30 points to 2 teams Packers and the 49ers and allowed the Bears with a rookie QB to put 24 up. The Vikings have 2 of the best WR in the league and the Lions will not have the ability in their secondary to cover them. I honestly can see the Vikings putting up points every time they have the ball. Cook will blast through their ground defence combined with JJ or Thielen (Theilan for anytime touchdown @ +110 on Iggy’s podcast) dominance through the air. I like Over 28 Vikings Team Total @ -167.
Bills +3 @ Chiefs -3 O/U lots
I’ve been going back and forth with this game as I expect it to be a fantastic game. The total is huge yet I can see that going over. The Chiefs rarely have a spread this low, especially at home which is a bit of a red flag and potential trap from the bookies. Yet I’ve been listening to podcasts that have the Bills top of their power ratings and those have them tipping them on the moneyline as there is tremendous value. The Bills have been fantastic if not at their full attacking peak from last year. Their defence has been exceptional even if it has been against weaker teams. (Only play who is put in front of you) but the Chiefs defence has regressed and is not playing as well as they have conceded 29, 36, 30 and 30 all to decent opposition. They have not covered the spread set by the bookies either since last year. They have the talent, coaching and are at home but do they have the right mind set; is a victory just enough for them? I like the Bills +7.5 start. They will keep on pressing for the victory and the Chiefs have been in come back mode for most of the season. This could come down to the wire and the last play. I would probably back Mahomes to pull it out of the bag but I have the hook to fall back on. I also like Bills and Chiefs over their Team total (especially if you tease them under 27) also as there will be points in this entertaining game.
Colts +6.5 @ Ravens -6.5 O/U 46
It's the Monday night game and our last leg: The Colts surprised a few last week by a) getting points on the board with their obvious Wentz handicap and b) against a usually solid defence of Miami. The end of the day Blissett was nowhere near up to standards needed to win a game and bring the Dolphins back into the game. The Ravens threw the ball all over the Elite Broncos secondary as the ground game took a backseat. The Ravens will bring pressure against a beat up elite OL and restrict Wentz. Johnathan Taylor might have to have a good game. The Ravens currently have the better QB, are playing well and scoring points whoever they play. I like the Ravens to win and I’ve taken them on the moneyline.
NYJvsATL OVER 39.5, MIN OVER 28, BUF +7.5, Moneyline BAL
FourFold Teased Journey Parlay @ +308 / 2/1