Saturday 18th September 2021 Blog 1.06

The Journey: Redzone Early Games Moneyline Parlay We missed out on cashing our inaugural journey last week by small margins (see the review of that and full transparency https://www.iggysfantasyandbetting.com/post/sunday-monday-14-15th-september-2021-nfl-202 1-1-5-3-5-units) but it was certainly an entertaining evening. There are no guarantees in this world but let's see what this week brings.

Raiders +6 @ Steelers -6 Over / Under 46.5 The grand home opener last week was amazing for the Raiders. They had fans for the first time in their all new stadium. This was an emotional and monster effort from the Raiders as they beat a heavily favoured Ravens. (even though the Ravens have had a cluster injury setback at running back) Maxx Crosby and Ngakoue were awesome last week. Can they do the same vs a poor OL for the Steelers? Crosby hit half his QB pressures from last year, in week one! Ngakoue could be an injury concern for this week; he didn't play the last few snaps. If they can't get the same pressure it might give a slight edge to Big Ben up against an average secondary. Look for Johnson to have the same 37% target share against a favourable match up. The Raider lost heavily last time they had an emotional win vs the Chiefs last year; they also have a short week and are traveling from the West to East coast. There is a strange stat which doesn't make sense in the modern world but it seems John Gruden's teams when traveling West to East playing early are 3-8 vs the rest 23-5.

There is also another loss to the Raiders OL (Denzil Good). This gives the already Frankenstein's monster, with players already playing out of position, not a fair start playing the front 4 of the Steelers. As Iggy stated on his podcast you have TJ Watt, Cameron Heywood, Stephen Tuit and Melvin Ingram all bring pressure; D. Carr might be under pressure most of the game, which he is not as efficient when in those situations. Leatherwood vs TJ Watt could be box office. TJ got 2 sacks last week and Leatherwood was poor, he rated in the 30’s by PFF last week vs Justin Houston. Waller will be key and was immense last week vs Ravens he is up against Minka Fitzpatrick which could be interesting as he is decent.

Najee Harris had 100% snap count last week and was underused. The Ravens managed nearly 200 rush yards. I can see him having a good week; his line of 74.5 should be good. I think this is a bad spot for the Raiders this week and can see the Stealers covering the -6 but we only need to see them win. Latest injury news Josh Jacobs is out and a key element to this run 1st offence. Steelers Win @ 1.36 / -278

Patriots -5.5 @ Jets +5.5 Over / Under 42.5 In the battle of the two rookies Quarterbacks one outstanding element to both their success is the fitness and quality of their OL. Mac Jones has a Top 10 rated OL that allows time in the pocket for him to throw and unleash an effective running game. Unfortunately the Jets lost Micia Beckton last week for potentially the season. He was one of the good spots on the Jets Offensive line. Even with Beckton Zak Wilson struggled last week; he was sacked 6 times, had pressure on 51 of drop backs and he had very little time to be effective last week vs Carolina. The Patriots will bring the same amount of pressure. Their front 7 is looking very good. They put Tua under pressure all game last week in a game they should have won. The Patriots will run the ball to death and are a superia team all across the board and when they don’t the Jets secondary is in the bottom 5 so he should be able to get yards in the air. Bill Belichick vs rookie

quarterbacks record is 26/6 and I don’t see the Jets putting up enough points to get a victory this week. Patriots win

Bills -3.5 @ Miami -3.5 Over / Under 47.5 Miami were fortunate to win last week due to the late fumble from Harris where the Patriots were in a comfortable winning position. The Steelers brought pressure from their front 4 and didn't blitz Allen which worked and they were able to contain him. Miami doesn't have the same front 4 and will likely be playing man coverage with plenty of Blitzes. (Allen top 5 vs Blitz last year) This will suit Diggs and Allen playbook as they are both favorable against that system. The heat could be a problem. The Bills will be in direct sunlight and not covered throughout the whole game. This could bring fatigue especially in the second half. (2nd half under could be a nice angle) Plus Bills put 50 on them last year. Fuller is out and Parker is doubtful so Miami are missing weapons that can hurt the Patriots secondary. Their backfield was not that effective against the Patriots and could be the only way to be successful against the bills. Bills win in a sweat in a low scoring game.

Denver -5 @ Jacksonville +5 Over / Under 45.5 Jacksonville looked bad as anticipated and Denver looked as good as expected. This Denver defense will control the game and restrict Trev. Denver has one of the Top 5 defenses in the league. Trev was mostly effective against Houston through the air. DJ Chalk had some very good numbers but this is Denver's strength and can he do it again when coming up with the pressure the Denver front 7 will bring. Jacksonville O Line i s one of the bottom 10 in the league and has decent interia guards but tackle is their weakness and if 2 sacks last week Von Miller has a similar game. Jacksonville could be in trouble. Jerry Jeudy will be a miss for Denver in the passing game as he is now out but; Tim Patrick will pick up the pieces and I expect a bigger target share to KJ Hamler. Where this game could be won is in the Denver backfield. Mo Gordan and Williams managed over 150 yards vs an above average rush defense of the Giants. Jacksonville rush defense is bottom 10; they allowed Houston's Mark Ingram to roll back the years and dominate them with 80 yards. Tyrod Taylor was equally impressive with 40 yards from 4 rushes. There are obvious miss-matches in the game. The Jags look under prepared and will really struggle against Denver (even though tis is a back to back away trip for them) Denver to win comfortably . Four fold Moneyline Parlay = 4.02 / +302 1.5 units

Come and join the journey with me. Be Lucky @LocoBeanz /@clutchupprops


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