Friday 10th September 2021: Day 2

What a start to the NFL season! Dallas came to the Superbowl champions and were unlucky not to take the points. They had 4 turnovers and Dak Prescott looked amazing. First order of the day: Dak Prescott for comeback player of the year (CBPOY). Iggy has been saying this for months on the podcast. Let's see what the odds are like this morning...

@ 2.4 or +140

Nice, that's 2.5 Units on that and my 2nd future bet I have placed for the year.

I said that the Dallas cornerbacks were in for a tough time. Antonio Brown (115 yards) and Chris Godwin (105 yards) took off with both going over 100 yards smashing their prop lines. Amari Cooper did exactly the same as he was a pass magnet and the go too for Dak (as predicted) 13 receptions for 136 yards. Special mention to CD Lamb he also went over 100 yards. Zeke Elliott was also as predicted frustrated with the colossus rush defence and went under his line. All in all a decent read of the game and player dynamics. My only bet was the same game parlay which was not successful as Mike Evans didn't get the required touchdown. The bet was only 0.25 units and was fundamentally a teaser and trial bet.

Vikings -110 -3 @ Bengals -110 +3 O/U 46.5

Dalvin Cook: Mr number 1.02 or 1.03 in most people's fantasy draft will eat up the Bengals Rush Defense. (21st last year.) They were the 3rd worst team in Yards given up to Running Back last year. Cook is projected to have the best Fantasy Football points in this game and has the best opponent opportunity @ 8.5 according to PFF. At an average of 125 per game last season he will be a staple (if slightly expensive DFS MUST for Week 1.) Reader has been brought in to steady the rush D but Cook is an elite RB and will be looking for Touchdowns and plenty of yards.

Both teams' Offensive Lines (OL) were bad last year. (28th and 29th respectively.) Kirk Cousins managed to produce 3rd highest passing grade last year and 2x top 10 Wide receivers with his OL. Pray for Burrow; he didn't and got severely injured. Both tackles for Vikings on paper will negate the main Pressure on the outside from Bengals.It was a Big loss for Bengals of rookie DE Ossai he would have brought additional pressure and supported Hubbard who is the main threat. New recruit Hendrickson will have to step up to the plate after being paid, he is Billy big balls now and must generate the same pressure and intensity to match his exceptional last year sack total. This is not the Saints Defensive Line anymore with Jordan and Onyemata hitting just short of 90 QB pressures last year (PFF) 5th highest. The Bengals were 30th in pressure last year. The Vikings middle OL will do just enough to control the damage coming up against a below 60 ranked DL and Reader (who has been brought in to help against the run, he is a rush game blocker at heart.) Cousins will be fairly comfortable and be able to pick his spots.

Danielle Hunter could wreak havoc and have a day out at the fair with this OL, he missed all last year after being exceptional the year prior (89 PFF grade.) The Vikings missed Hunter last year and the Defence was not as potent. Vikings D was categorised as the best Defence this year potentially by the Athletic. High praise; it's assumed The Vikings bring more pressure and be more clinical this year. This week the Bengals will have a Rookie playing at guard and the 2x tackles are league average. The Bengals passed two OL opportunities in the draft including letting Penei 'Most likely to be in the Hall of Fame' Sewell go to the Lions. With his new knee scar still knitting the sinuses together the Vikings could tear through inexperienced or just inadequate space which could result in giving Burrows some PTSD flashbacks. Burrow will have his chances to move the ball but it will not be an easy ride.

I’m liking the Vikings chances this week. There are problems with drops from Ja’marr Chase and Joe Burrows has been training with pool tubes to simulate bodies in the pocket. He has to get over the mental state of recovery as well as the physical. I’m not sure he is ready just yet. #Prey4Burrow Vikings -3 @ 10/11 / -110 1 Unit Miss match Alert: Justin Jefferson vs Awuzie. JJ had the Best season receiving yards ever as a Rookie, he rated 90 (PFF) and was WR4 overall. Awuzie had a poor season and was graded 52 for defence PFF. (not great) He has moved from Dallas where they were torched a lot last year (this might not have been beneficial to his rating.) JJ put 122 receiving yards on Awuzie last year when at Dallas. This time he at least has Jessie Bates III (No.1 in safety PFF) to help on his side. JJ to get over Over 77.5 yards @ -120 / 10/11 1 Unit

Denver-3@NYGiants+3 O/U41.5

Denver were 9th in pressure rate last year, this was without Von Miller (over 88 rating for the last 6 seasons) so they have huge potential to improve. Pairing Chubb and Jones both pass rush specialists and Harris who has been a Top 10 Inside Defensive Lineman for a few seasons and will bring a lot of pressure to a Giants OL. They were 31st overall last year and nothing of note has been adjusted. Danny Dimes might be scrambling once again and uncomfortable most of the night. This is a huge miss-match. The Giants have added weapons for Danny but if he is not allowed time to execute he might not be able to deploy them for positive results.

Barkley might have to be the main spark for the Giants but how are they going to treat the returning ~Superstar. Hopefully not up to 11 straight away.. Let the boy find his feet again or his hands. Barkley top projected fantasy score on both teams with 11.5 points (PFF).

Denver’s main defensive system methodology of trying to limit the pass rush, Cover 1 will be deployed which allows more space to run into. Denver was the 9th worst team in yards vs Run last year. They have an excellent Pass rush, arguably the best secondary complemented with excellent Cornerbacks and Elite safeties that in addition to the pressure could spell trouble for the Giants; who might struggle putting up points. The fitness of Galloday will be key. He is a Redzone threat and stand out weapon in the Giants receiver room. The slot will be monitored by one of the best CB in the league Callahan who is Elite in his area. (Shepherd and Toney in for a tough day). Dever also boasts not just one of the best safeties but 2x in the top 10. Simmonds S8 Johnson S6. (PFF) These will further restrict the Giants movements down the field and contain them.

The Broncos defence is not the only team on display in this game. The Giants also have some fantastic pieces. Laurence and Williams are both quality Inside Defensive Linemen (IDL). They specialise in Run defence but have an all round game. The main pressure on the QB will come from IDL but the lack of pressure from the edge was noticeable last year as they came 19th in pressure. The Giants need to get pressure on Teddy Bridgewater and Oleeze Ojulari was brought in to help from the draft. Denver’s Offensive Line was 21st last year and has some outstanding individuals but some notable weaknesses. The centre was the worst in the league last year. Both guards could be improved and they could be in for a tough night against the Giants IDL if they can generate an above average rate of pressure. It's a mismatch that needs to be resolved as the Bengals strength is in Tackle but that's where the Giants are not strong.

Bradbury is a quality CB1 and could take out Sutton on his return from injury. He is a Top 5 CB. Jeudy vs Jackson is the main event. Jeudy is a fantastic route runner and Jackson will be seen as the weak link in this Giants defence. Jackson’s grades dropped 20 points last year which is not good. The ball has to go into Jerry's hands this year!! His line is short but still the games highest Over 50 yards @ -115 / 0.87. He will be targeted the most and just needs 5/6 catches to pass this line. Peppers, Martinez and Ryan are all accomplished players and good additions to the Giants secondary; especially helping out coverage of the wide receivers and should be ‘effective if they stay out of cover 1 and stick to more zonal marking’ (PFF). The Giants were 11th best in Pass rush efficiency last year.

This has the feel for a low scoring game of small margins. I like Denver to win (They might be just a QB away for making a playoff push) so the angle I’m going for is Denver -0.5 (win) and Under 50 points @ +110 / 2.1 looks like a steal on Betfair 1.5 Units.

Will be back tomorrow with more

Be Lucky

@LocoBeanz / @clutchupprops

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